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Prodromal Crisis Stage

Фамилия
Дождикова
Имя
Людмила
Отчество
Михайловна
Номинация
Иностранные языки и коммуникативные технологии
Институт
Институт базового образования (ИБО)
Кафедра
Кафедра иностранных языков и коммуникативных технологий
Академическая группа
ЛГ-15-М
Научный руководитель
PhD, Associate Professor Lukanina M.V.
Название тезиса
Prodromal Crisis Stage
Тезис

In crisis management there are typically four distinct phases of a business crisis paradigm – focusing on the prodromal crisis, acute crisis, chronic crisis and crisis resolution stages [1]. Prodromal or pre-crisis stage is a key period to prevent serious consequences by simple actions. Prodromes are warning signs of a crisis. The reason why prodromes are so important to catch early on is that it is so much easier to manage a crisis at this stage. In case of most crises, it is much more logical to take care of a problem before it becomes acute, before it erupts and causes possible complications or financial disaster.

However, a prodrome may be oblique and hard to recognize, and sometimes the prodrome is evident but no action is taken and an acute crisis occurs [2]. That is why it is necessary to conduct a vulnerability analysis. Despite the range of approaches to measure vulnerability, several best practices in vulnerability assessment have emerged. Most of the literature adheres to some variation of a basic formula recurrent throughout the literature: Risk + Response = Vulnerability [3].

Hoddinott and Quisumbing pose five questions that a vulnerability assessment should answer. First, “What is the extent of vulnerability?”, “Who is vulnerable?”, “What are the sources of vulnerability?" "How do others respond to shocks?”, “What gaps exist between risks and risk management mechanisms?”. Answering these questions requires multiple data collection methods and additional data [4].

Conducting vulnerability analysis at a prodromal stage is a pre-requisite for efficient crisis management irrespective of the type of organization.

References:

1. Fink, S. (1986). Crisis Management: Planning for the Inevitable. New York, NY: American Management Association.

2. Nurmi, R.W. and J.R. Darling (1997). International Management Leadership: The Primary Competitive Advantage. New York, NY: International Business Press.

3. Moret W. (2014). Vulnerability Assessment Methodologies: A Review of the Literature. ASPIRES.

4. Hoddinott, J., & Quisumbing, A. (2003). Methods for Microeconometric Risk and Vulnerability Assessments. Social Protection Discussion Paper. Social Protection Unit, Human Development Network. World Bank.