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Morden Problems of Arctic reseach

Name
Repina
Surname
Irina
Scientific organization
A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Academic degree
Doctor of Science, Professor
Position
Head of Laboratory
Scientific discipline
Earth Sciences, Ecology & Environmental Management
Topic
Morden Problems of Arctic reseach
Abstract
An expected consequence of the change to seasonal sea ice is a radical transformation of oceanic and
atmospheric processes. This is a highly relevant and timely scientific topic of modern climate research. Addressing this challenge will help improve the reliability of long-term predictions as regards the environmental conditions, which is absolutely necessary for management and informational support of economic activities in the Arctic region, as well as timely adaptation/mitigation of social infrastructure and population livelihood to the rapidly changing climate.
Keywords
Arctic Climate, ice cover, experivental research, climat models, remote sensing
Summary

The reasons for the accelerated changes in Arctic climate in recent years is still not clearly defined. The question remains about the relative contributions of internal oscillation and external  influences (mostly anthropogenic) on the formation of climate change in the Arctic.

The most striking climate event of the recent two decades is the reduction of the summer Arctic sea ice area and extent. The absolute minimum of the sea ice extent for the entire period of satellite observations was reached in September 2012. Summer ice extent in 2005-2013 was also consistently lower than during the previous decade and substantially lower than the climate standard value. After a drastic decrease of the sea ice area in summer 2007, the ice cover over a substantial part of the Arctic Ocean became seasonal. According to the projections of the Global Climate Models (GCMs), totally seasonal Arctic Ocean ice cover is expected to emerge by the second half of the 21st century. However, accelerated summer melt/removal of ice from the deep Arctic Ocean interior in the last several years probably requires revision of this time frame. An expected consequence of the change to seasonal sea ice is a radical transformation of oceanic and atmospheric processes caused by fundamental change in the state of the ocean surface. This transformation may invoke/accelerate non-linear feedbacks in the “ocean-ice-atmosphere” system. Deep understanding and comprehensive investigation of the present changes in the Arctic climate system components is ultimately needed for adequate representation in the GCMs. This is a highly relevant and timely scientific topic of modern climate research. Addressing this challenge will help improve the reliability of long-term predictions as regards the environmental conditions, which is absolutely necessary for management and informational support of economic activities in the Arctic region, as well as timely adaptation/mitigation of social infrastructure and population livelihood to the rapidly changing climate. 

The report focuses on the development of new methods of diagnosis and the simulation of the current state and evolution of the main components of the climate system in the Arctic (sea ice, permafrost, atmospheric boundary layer) in order to forecast its dynamics in a changing climate.

 
The influence of various factors on the current state of the ice conditions in the Arctic, as well as feedbacks between changes in the sea ice and regional atmospheric circulation is discussed. The estimation of the contribution of marine and terrestrial sources of greenhouse gases in the regional balance of atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide in the Arctic is proposed.