Methods for assess the socio-economic impacts of natural risks on municipal level
Relevance of this study caused by increased importance of natural hazards and their catastrophic consequences for the world (in particular Russian) population and economy.
To assess the socio-economic risks of natural hazards, we developed a group of indexes, which based on a comparison of the accumulated territorial socio-economic potential and the probability of natural hazards. At creation of methods, we relied on principle: natural hazards show their essence only in the human exploration territory. Otherwise, it can be named only as ordinary natural phenomena. According to this we first developed the concept of "density of accumulated territorial social-economic potential." For this purpose, we considered the socio-economic characteristics of the territory outside the administrative borders (inside the administrative borders, we investigated only human exploration areas).
Testing of our methods was made on the example of a group of Russian regions (the level of municipalities). We detected zones with different levels of risk. It is allowed to select municipalities, which need more large-scale studie. As a result, we have created a series of maps and typology of municipalities. It based on a combination of two parameters: the probability of natural disasters (in our case – floods, avalanches, and mudflows) and the level of socio-economic potential. The high density of the socio-economic potential of the territory provides high prospects of development. Thus development of hazardous areas is most likely (due to limited land resources). Therefore must take account of the risks of natural hazards and the proposed method is a necessary tool for this. This methodology may be used to develop monitoring systems, programs to protect the population and economic objects, territorial planning and economic development.