Регистрация / Вход
Прислать материал

Prediction of extreme climate events

Name
Juergen
Surname
Kurths
Scientific organization
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Academic degree
Professor
Position
Head of Research Domain Transdisciplinary Concepts & Methods
Scientific discipline
Earth Sciences, Ecology & Environmental Management
Topic
Prediction of extreme climate events
Abstract
We use new concepts from complex systems science to study predictability of extreme climate events. We first analyse and predict most of extreme rainfall events in the Central Andes. Second, we construct a new prediction for the onset of Indian summer monsoon which clearly outperforms existing methods. Stolbova et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 068392 (2016)
Keywords
prediction; precursor; critical fluctuations; air temperature
Summary

Prediction of extreme climate events

J. Kurths, N. Boers, B. Bookhagen, V. Stolbova, and E. Surovyatkina;

Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Res. & Inst. Applied Physics, RAN, Nizhny Novgorod

 

We use new concepts from complex systems science to study predictability of extreme climate events and sudden regime transitions.

First, we introduce the concept of complex network divergence derived from a nonlinear synchronization measure. We apply this technique to real-time satellite-derived rainfall data and predict more than 60% (90% during El Nino conditions) of extreme rainfall events in the Central Andes. In addition to the societal benefits of predicting such natural hazards, our study reveals the responsible mechanism for this phenomenon.

Second, we use the complex network approach to identify tipping elements of the Indian monsoon. Regarding the onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon as abrupt transitions, we find critical conditions before these events happen and construct this way a new prediction approach which leads to clearly outperform existing prediction methods of both.

 

References

  • N. Boers, B. Bookhagen, H.M.J. Barbosa, N. Marwan, J. Kurths, and J.A. Marengo, Nature Communications 5, 5199 (2014)
  • N. Boers, B. Bookhagen, H.M.J. Barbosa, J.A. Marengo, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths, J. Climate 28, 7641 (2015)
  • N. Boers, R. Donner, B. Bookhagen, and J. Kurths, Climate Dynamics 45, 619 (2015)V, Stolbova, E. Surovyatkina, B. Bookhagen, and J. Kurths, Geophysical Research Letters 43, 068392 (2016)